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An Empirical Small Labor Market Model for the Czech Economy

Jan Bruha ()

Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 2011, vol. 61, issue 5, 434-449

Abstract: An empirical small labor market model for the Czech Republic is estimated in the state-space framework. Its purpose is joint modeling of the labor force, employment, wages, hours worked, output, and the GDP deflator in a consistent “structural” framework suitable for short-run forecasting. The model entails, in the long run, five driving forces: a trend labor force component, a trend labor productivity component, a long-run inflation rate, an unemployment trend, and a trend hours worked component. In the short run, the dynamics are governed by a VAR model. The model aims at describing co-movements in the labor-market variables, provides a model-based decomposition into the trend and cyclical components of the underlying series, and outperforms unrestricted VARs in forecasting. The paper also describes the second moments of labor market data at various frequencies and discusses to what extent these properties can be replicated by the data.

Keywords: structural time series; labor market; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 C53 E17 J21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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