Uncovering Publication Bias in Fiscal Multiplier Estimates

Michal Hlaváček and Ilgar Ismayilov
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Ilgar Ismayilov: Charles University, Prague, Azerbaijan State Economic University (UNEC), Baku

Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 2024, vol. 74, issue 4, 392-431

Abstract: Our study provides an integrated overview of fiscal multiplier estimates, a key parameter assessing the economy’s response to government interventions. Using a comprehensive database comprising 131 studies and over 3200 observations, we employ both linear and non- linear meta-analysis methods. Notably, our study marks the first application of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) in the context of meta-analysis for fiscal multipliers. Our results reveal a positive but moderate fiscal multiplier effect, ranging from 0.75 to 0.83 across different models. Significantly, our findings diverge from prior research by identifying a publication selection bias, largely attributed to our innovative use of BMA for heterogeneity investigation.

Keywords: fiscal multiplier; meta-analysis; publication bias; model uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C83 E62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fau:fauart:v:74:y:2024:i:4:p:392-431

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