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Current Issues on the Price of Oil: Decline, Forecasting, Volatility and Uncertainty

Niaz Bashiri, Andrea Bastianin (), Elisa Bortolussi, Francesca Conti, Matteo Manera () and Marcella Nicolini
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Niaz Bashiri: FEEM
Elisa Bortolussi: University of Milan-Bicocca
Francesca Conti: FEEM

Review of Environment, Energy and Economics - Re3

Abstract: The 2015 workshop on “Recent evolutions of oil and commodity prices”, organized by FEEM, focused on the sharp decline in the oil price in 2014. High crude oil production and slower demand growth explain a large fraction of the current low level of prices, but a complex set of factors is responsible. In light of these events, forecasting the price of oil is challenging and requires composite information: accurate forecasting models are able to predict this. The decline in price is reflected in an increase in oil price volatility and uncertainty, which have relevant implications on the real economy.

Keywords: Oil Price Decline; Forecasting; Volatility; Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q41 Q43 Q47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Handle: RePEc:fem:femre3:2015.07-02