EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Forecasting and Analysing Corporate Tax Revenues in Sweden Using Bayesian VAR Models*

Hovick Shahnazarian, Martin Solberger () and Erik Spånberg
Additional contact information
Hovick Shahnazarian: Ministry of Finance, Sweden
Erik Spånberg: Ministry of Finance and Department of Statistics, Stockholm University

Finnish Economic Papers, 2017, vol. 28, issue 1, 50-74

Abstract: Corporate tax revenue forecasts are important for governmental agencies, but are complicated to achieve with high precision and generally also difficult to connect to governments’ macroeconomic forecasts. This paper proposes a solution to these problems by decomposing corporate tax revenues and connecting the components to different determinants using Bayesian VAR models. Applied to Sweden, we find that most of the variation in forecasting errors of net operating surplus and net business income are attributable to shocks in factors identified in the literature, and that the forecasting performance is improved by conditioning on the macroeconomic development.

JEL-codes: C53 H25 H68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.taloustieteellinenyhdistys.fi/wp-conten ... _1_17_4_Spanberg.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fep:journl:v:28:y:2017:i:1:p:50-74

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Finnish Economic Papers from Finnish Economic Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Editorial Secretary ().

 
Page updated 2019-11-29
Handle: RePEc:fep:journl:v:28:y:2017:i:1:p:50-74