World population in 2050: assessing the projections: discussion

Wolfgang P. Lutz

Conference Series ; [Proceedings], 2001, vol. 46

Abstract: I would like to follow up on the last sentence of the excellent presentation by Joel Cohen. It is indeed true that the lag between new methodological developments and their actual implementation by statistical agencies is regrettably long, but I think there is some hope that the speed of applying innovations has been accelerating over this century. This is the case in many other areas, and it would be surprising if it were not the case in the field of population forecasting. I would assess with a probability of well above 90 percent that by the end of this century, institutional procedures for projecting population will include probabilistic elements. ; In the following, I would like to mention three additional aspects [new methods, extreme events, and projections of population by level of education] complementing the important remarks made by Cohen.

Keywords: Economic conditions; Demography (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001
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