Population aging and fiscal policy in Europe and the United States

Jagadeesh Gokhale and Bernd Raffelhuschen

Economic Review, 1999, issue Q IV, 10-20

Abstract: The authors report each country's total intertemporal public liability as the sum of its explicit outstanding debt and the present values of its implicit liabilities--the excess of projected transfers and government purchases over tax revenues. They find rapid, persistent population aging in almost every European country. They also calculate that for European countries with the highest implicit liabilities, eliminating total intertemporal liabilities would require tax increases exceeding 4 percent of GDP. Compared to Europe, the future challenges of population aging and fiscal problems in the United States seem far more benign.

Date: 1999
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