New results on the rationality of survey measures of exchange-rate expectations

William P. Osterberg

Economic Review, 2000, issue Q I, 14-21

Abstract: In light of research questioning the usefulness of economists' models of exchange-rate determination, this paper investigates the rationality of survey measures of expectations for Deutschmark/dollar exchange rates for 1989-97. Using Liu and Maddala's (1992) \"restricted cointegration\" test, the author cannot reject the assumption that survey measures are unbiased exchange-rate forecasts. This finding is related to market participants' anticipation of the impact of economic policies.

Date: 2000
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