Money growth, supply shocks, and inflation

Joseph Haslag and D'Ann M. Ozment

Economic and Financial Policy Review, 1991, issue May, 17 pages

Abstract: Recently, economists have examined the monetarist and the expectations-augmented Phillips-curve models of inflation to determine which model is a better predictor of the inflation rate. These studies raise an important question: Does money growth contain information that is useful in predicting the inflation rate? ; Joseph H. Haslag and D'Ann M. Ozment specify a general model of the inflation rate that encompasses both the Phillips-curve and the monetarist models. They find that their general, encompassing model is a better predictor of the inflation rate than either the monetarist model or the expectations-augmented Phillips-curve model of inflation. Furthermore, the authors find that changes in money growth play an important, independent role in predicting the inflation rate.

Keywords: Money supply; Inflation (Finance) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1991
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