Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?

Margaret M. McConnell and Gabriel Perez-Quiros
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Gabriel Perez Quiros

Proceedings, 2000, issue Mar

Abstract: We document a structural decline in the volatility of real U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter of 1984. As a means of understanding the dramatic volatility reduction, we decompose output growth by major product type and provide evidence that the break emanates from a reduction in the volatility of durable goods production. We further show that the break in durables is roughly coincident with a break in the proportion of durables accounted for by inventories. We note that the break in output volatility affects the implementation of a wide range of simulation and econometric techniques and offer one important illustration of this in the context of a regime-switching model of output growth.

Keywords: Gross; domestic; product (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (841)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's? (2000)
Working Paper: Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s? (1998)
Working Paper: Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s? (1997)
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