EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

The 2001 recession and the Chicago Fed National Index: identifying business cycle turning points

Charles Evans (), Chin Liu and Genevieve Kanter

Economic Perspectives, 2002, vol. 26, issue Q III, 26-43

Abstract: The initial release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) in early 2001 pointed to the very real possibility that the U.S. economy was teetering on the brink of recession. This article quantifies the statistical ability of the CFNAI to act as an early warning indicator of economic recessions. In simulation experiments, the CFNAI performed virtually as well as the statistical model's ideal measure of the business cycle.

Keywords: Recessions; Economic indicators; Index numbers (Economics); Business cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publicati ... es/2002/3qepart2.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2002:i:qiii:p:26-43:n:v.26no.3

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Economic Perspectives from Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().

 
Page updated 2020-11-30
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2002:i:qiii:p:26-43:n:v.26no.3