EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

How Do FOMC Projections Affect Policy Uncertainty?

Brent Bundick () and Trenton Herriford ()

Economic Review, 2017, issue Q II, 5-22

Abstract: In January 2012, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began publicly releasing its participants? projections for the future value of the federal funds rate. The former FOMC Chair Ben Bernanke stated that these releases help the public form policy expectations. However, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John C. Williams noted that the range of the funds rate forecast conveyed disagreement and uncertainty. These projections may be conflicting in nature, and thus may not lower public uncertainty. Bundick and Herriford seek to answer the question: do these projections decrease or increase uncertainty about future policy? To answer this question, the authors measure how uncertainty about future interest rates changed after the FOMC began releasing its participants? projections for the appropriate federal funds rate. The authors found that the overall uncertainty about future interest rates decreased after FOMC began releasing its participants? interest rate projections. However, the authors found that public uncertainty is correlated with disagreement across participants? projections. In sum, the findings provide empirical support for the claims of Bernanke and Williams.

Keywords: Interest rates; FOMC; Monetary policy; Federal Open Market Committee; Federal funds rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.kansascityfed.org/~/media/files/public ... bundickherriford.pdf Full text (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedker:00051

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Economic Review from Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().

 
Page updated 2020-11-26
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:00051