Can the Ag Credit Survey predict national credit conditions?

Brian Briggeman and Christopher Zakrzewicz

Economic Review, 2009, vol. 94, issue Q IV, 93-110

Abstract: With the farm boom ending in 2009, many farmers have become less able to repay short-term loans. As farm profit margins erode and farm loan delinquencies rise, some in the agricultural industry worry that lending standards will tighten?as they did in the farm debt crisis of the 1980s. ; One barometer of future agricultural credit conditions is agricultural bankers. Experience and access to information give these bankers a unique perspective on agricultural credit conditions. In fact, several Federal Reserve banks survey agricultural bankers in their district to tap this source of information. But how reliable are regional Federal Reserve agricultural credit surveys? And can a regional survey shed light on future loan delinquencies and credit standards nationwide? ; Briggeman examines the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City?s Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions to explore these questions. He concludes that the Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions reliably predicts farm loan repayment rates in the district and provides valuable insight into future farm loan delinquencies and credit standards nationwide. The most recent Survey data suggest that the nation?s farm loan delinquencies will continue to rise in the year ahead, which may cause collateral requirements to stay elevated heading into 2010.

Date: 2009
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