A New Estimate of the Natural Rate of Unemployment

Didem Tuzemen

Macro Bulletin, 2017, 1-4

Abstract: The author presented a new estimate of the natural (or trend) rate of unemployment that accounts for changes in the age, sex, and skill composition of the labor force. Based on this new estimate, the natural rate of unemployment has declined by 0.4 percentage point since 1994 and is currently 4.6 percent. Ongoing demographic and technological changes could lower the trend rate further to 4.4 percent by the end of 2022.

Keywords: Labor force; Employment; Labor market; Unemployment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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