Why are stock market returns correlated with future economic activities?
Hui Guo ()
Review, 2002, vol. 84, issue Mar., 19-34
Stock price, because it is a forward-looking variable, forecasts economic activities. An unexpected increase in stock price reflects that (i) future dividend growth is higher and/or (ii) future discount rates are lower than previously anticipated; therefore, the increase predicts higher output and investment. As well, other studies argue for an important relation between the expected stock market return and investment. In this paper, Hui Guo analyzes the relative importance of these mechanisms by using Campbell and Shiller?s (1988) method to decompose stock market return into three parts: expected return, a shock to the expected future return, and a shock to the expected future dividend growth. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, the author finds that dividend shocks are a rather weak predictor for future economic activities. Moreover, the expected return and shocks to the expected future return display different predictive patterns. The results shown here, collectively, explain why the forecasting power of stock market return is rather limited.
Keywords: Stock; market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2002:i:mar.:p:19-34:n:v.84no.2
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in Review from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().