Regime-dependent recession forecasts and the 2001 recession
Michael Dueker
Review, 2002, vol. 84, issue Nov, 29-36
Abstract:
Business recessions are notoriously hard to predict accurately, hence the quip that economists have predicted eight of the last five recessions. This article derives a six-month-ahead recession signal that reduces the number of false signals outside of recession, without impairing the ability to signal the recessions that occur. In terms of predicting the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions out of sample, the new recession signal, like other signals, largely misses the 1990-91 recession with its six-month-ahead forecasts. In contrast, a recession onset in April or May 2001 was predicted six months ahead of the 2001 recession, which is close to the actual turning point of March 2001.
Keywords: Business cycles; Recessions; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)
Downloads: (external link)
https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/02/11/Dueker.pdf (application/pdf)
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2002:i:nov:p:29-36:n:v.84no.6
Access Statistics for this article
Review is currently edited by Juan M. Sanchez
More articles in Review from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Scott St. Louis ().