The Recent Rise in US Inflation: Policy Lessons from the Quantity Theory

Han Gao () and Juan Pablo Nicolini

Quarterly Review, 2024, vol. 44, issue 2

Abstract: We build a scenario for inflation in the United States in the years to come. Following Gao, Kulish, and Nicolini (2021), we use the quantity theory of money as a conceptual framework and confront the theory with evidence from both the United States and other OECD countries. We argue that a) the quantity theory of money works very well in the medium term, which we define to be close to four years; b) deviations from the inflation rate predicted by the quantity theory tend to disappear in the medium term; c) the burst in inflation that started in 2021 in the United States is a deviation from the inflation rate predicted by the quantity theory; and d) if the policy framework does not change, we expect inflation to be back close to its 2% target no later than 2025.

Keywords: Monetary policy; Inflation; Quantity theory of money (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E41 E51 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Working Paper: The Recent Rise in US Inflation: Policy Lessons from the Quantity Theory (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedmqr:98600

DOI: 10.21034/qr.4422

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