A simple way to estimate current-quarter GNP

Terry Fitzgerald and Preston J. Miller

Quarterly Review, 1989, vol. 13, issue Fall, 27-31

Abstract: This paper describes a method developed to predict the advance (first) estimate of inflation-adjusted gross national product (real GNP) using hours-worked data. Besides generating fairly accurate forecasts of advance GNP, the method has two implications. First, the Commerce Department seems to weigh the hours-worked data most heavily in its early estimates of real GNP but less and less so in its revised estimates. Second, analysts attempting to predict current-quarter outcomes in real time need to consider the availability and reliability of data at the time the forecasts are made.

Keywords: Vector autoregression; Gross national product (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1989
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:1989:i:fall:p:27-31:n:v.13no.4

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