P*: not the inflation forecaster's holy grail

Lawrence Christiano

Quarterly Review, 1989, vol. 13, issue Fall, 3-18

Abstract: This paper describes and evaluates P-Star (P*), a new method to forecast inflation trends which was introduced by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in the summer of 1989. The paper examines how well P* would have done, compared with eight other forecasting methods, had all of these methods been used to forecast inflation in the 1970s and 1980s. P* turns out to be not an exceptionally good or bad way to forecast inflation.

Keywords: Forecasting; Inflation (Finance) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1989
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (27)

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