A bleak outlook for the U.S. economy

David E. Runkle

Quarterly Review, 1991, vol. 15, issue Fall, 18-25

Abstract: Economic activity in the United States has been growing more slowly than average for the past three years, and it is not likely to speed up soon. The slow growth has been due primarily to pessimism among consumers about their long-run personal income. That pessimism?and its extension to the U.S. economy as a whole?is confirmed by data on real estate prices and labor force participation and by the 1992?93 forecast of a Bayesian vector autoregression model.

Keywords: Business; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1991
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/pub_display.cfm?id=239 (application/pdf)
http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/QR/QR1542.pdf

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:1991:i:fall:p:18-25:n:v.15no.4

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Quarterly Review from Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Kate Hansel ().