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The unreliability of inflation indicators

Stephen Cecchetti (), Rita S. Chu and Charles Steindel

Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 2000, issue apr

Abstract: Analysts seeking evidence of rising inflation often focus on the movements of a single indicator_an increase in the price of gold, for example, or a decline in the unemployment rate. But simple statistical tests reveal that such indicators, used in isolation, have very limited predictive power.

Keywords: Inflation (Finance); Economic indicators; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
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