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Are we in a recession? The 'anxious index nowcast' knows!

Adam Scavette

Research Rap Special Report, 2014, issue Dec

Abstract: When the economy is in the midst of a recession, even a severe one, it can be quite difficult at first to tell. For example, as the Great Recession took hold in late 2007 and early 2008, uncertainty lingered as to whether the economy had merely slowed or was already contracting. Unfortunately for policymakers, investors, and consumers — all of whom might have been able to use such information to make better decisions regarding consumption, investment, and saving — the recession was not officially called until December 2008. Similarly, the four prior recessions were anywhere from five to nine months old before their onset was declared.

Keywords: Recession; Nowcast; Survey of Professional Forecasters; SPF (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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