Does the Unemployment Rate Really Overstate Labor Market Recovery?

Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak, Fabian Lange and Timothy Sablik

Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2014, issue June

Abstract: Unemployment rose dramatically during the 2007-09 recession, peaking at 10 percent in October 2009. It has fallen steadily since then, at times outpacing economists' forecasts. In April, unemployment reached 6.3 percent, about two-thirds of the way back to its prerecession level. Such progress is often a sign of recovery, but some observers question whether the unemployment rate accurately measures resource utilization in the current labor market.

Date: 2014
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