Projecting Unemployment and Demographic Trends

Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak and John Mullin

Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2019, issue September

Abstract: Demographic forces have profoundly shaped the dynamics of U.S. labor force participation and unemployment over the past forty years. Recognizing the importance of these employment indicators for the conduct of monetary policy, this Economic Brief explores how they have been influenced by the U.S. population's changing gender, educational, and age profile. Based on the authors' estimates, the trend U.S. unemployment rate will decline to 4.3 percent over the next ten years as the population continues to age and increase its educational attainment.

Keywords: full employment; labor markets; lfp; labor force participation; unemployment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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