The Ins and Outs of Long-Term Unemployment

Katrina Borovickova and Claudia Macaluso
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Katrina Borovickova: https://www.richmondfed.org/research/people/borovickova

Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2026, vol. 26, issue 25

Abstract: The recent rise in long-term unemployment is almost entirely accounted for by a decline in unemployment outflow rates, especially the rate at which unemployed workers find jobs. Inflows into unemployment from employment remain low by historical standards, indicating that the rise is not driven by increased layoffs. Outflow rates have fallen most for workers already unemployed 27 weeks or longer, widening the duration gap and signaling that current dynamics are different because such widening has previously only occurred if the economy was in a recession.

Keywords: Employment; and; Labor; Markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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