Aggregate or Structural? Diagnosing the Rise in Unemployment

Katrina Borovickova and Claudia Macaluso
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Katrina Borovickova: https://www.richmondfed.org/research/people/borovickova

Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2026, vol. 26, issue 27

Abstract: The decline in the job-finding rate is largest for strongly attached workers in occupations highly exposed to artificial intelligence, but this group is too small to drive the aggregate change on its own. A standard flows-based decomposition shows that less-exposed workers — both primary and secondary types — account for roughly half of the aggregate decline in the job-finding rate since mid-2023. AI exposure is an important but not dominant factor driving the decline in job-finding probability.

Keywords: Employment; and; Labor; Markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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