Partisan Conflict Over Trade Policy

Marina Azzimonti

Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 2026, vol. 26, issue 33

Abstract: The Trade Partisan Conflict Index (Trade-PCI) measures the intensity of partisan disagreement over trade policy at a monthly frequency (since 1981). Partisan conflict over trade reached its highest level on record in 2025, with the surge specific to trade rather than to a broader rise in political polarization. The Trade-PCI measures partisan conflict, not the realized effects of tariffs. Announced tariff rates far exceeded the duties actually collected, and their short-run effects on prices and employment were modest. However, disagreement this intense and persistent can weigh on long-horizon decisions, such as foreign direct investment into the U.S.

Keywords: trade; and; international; economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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