Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting

2005 - 2025

From International Institute of Forecasters
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2025, issue 76

Strategic Forecasting in Biopharma: Preview of Special Feature pp. 5-5

Christian Schaefer

Probability Assessments to Support Portfolio Management at Eli Lilly pp. 6-14

Charles Persinger and Jay Andersen

Neural Network Models to Predict Clinical Trial Completion pp. 15-20

Clarke Patrone, Jaseem Mahmmdla, Roshan Seth and Gayathri Devi Raghupathy

The Impact of Events and Order of Entry pp. 21-27

Nicholas Guthrie

Forecasting the Uptake of Gene Therapies pp. 28-33

Gary Johnson

Long-Term Product Forecasting in Pharmaceuticals pp. 34-39

Robert F. Siegmund

Addressing Bias in Pharmaceutical Pipeline Forecasting pp. 40-46

Richard Murgatroyd

Prognostication with Unusual Sources pp. 47-48

Thomas Wolfram

The Insufficiency of Looking at Forecast Accuracy Alone pp. 49-50

Steven Pauly

Brier Score vs. Log Score pp. 51-52

Stephan Kolassa

2024, issue 75

Large Language Models as Benchmarks in Forecasting Practice pp. 5-10

Hossein Hassani and Emmanuel Sirimal Silva

LLMs, Data Leakage, Bullshit, and Botshit pp. 11-16

Stephan Kolassa

Commentary: Can LLMs Provide Good Forecasts? pp. 18-20

Christoph Bergmeir

Reply to the Commentaries: A Plea for the Ranked Probability Score pp. 21-23

Malte Tichy

Unethical Behavior in Forecast Accuracy Evaluation pp. 24-31

Kevin Forbes

Limiting Extreme Behavior in Forecasting Competitions pp. 32-37

Matthew J. Schneider, Jethro Browell and Rufus Rankin

Linear Regression with a Time Series View Part 4: Logistic Regression for Binary Outcomes pp. 38-43

Ken Fordyce

Review: Global Energy Outlook 2024: Peaks or Plateaus? by Daniel Raimi, Yuqi Zhu, Richard G. Newell, and Brian C. Prest pp. 44-46

Ira Sohn

The Brier Score and Its Decomposition pp. 47-48

Stephan Kolassa

2024, issue 74

Alliance or Apathy? Forecasting's Role in Achieving the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals pp. 5-6

Bahman Rostami-Tabar and Michael Gilliland

Scaling-Aware Forecast Rating pp. 7-11

Malte Tichy

Commentary: A Good Correction for Forecastability pp. 12-13

Stefan de Kok

Commentary: A Major Milestone for Forecast Accuracy Summarization pp. 14-15

Tim Januschowski

Commentary: The Scaling Trap in Retail Forecasting pp. 16-17

Zabiulla Mohammed

How Do I Set Forecast Accuracy Expectations? pp. 18-19

Patrick Bower

Information that Can Damage Your Demand Forecasts pp. 20-22

Paul Goodwin

Forecast Desirability: Is Better the Enemy of Good? pp. 24-29

Johann Robette

Point Forecast Evaluation: State of the Art pp. 30-35

Ivan Svetunkov

Linear Regression with a Time Series View Part 3: Qualitative Predictor Variables pp. 36-41

Ken Fordyce

Decision Intelligence: A Critical Reflection pp. 42-44

Roger Moser

Spotlight: Interview with Marina Sologubova pp. 45-46

Foresight Staff

A Planner-centric Approach to Judgmental Forecasting pp. 47-48

Niels van Hove

2024, issue 73

Failing to Pay Attention to Error: Our Greatest Error pp. 5-12

Steve Morlidge

A Critical Evaluation of the Assumptions of Forecast Value Added pp. 13-23

Conor Doherty

Commentary: FVA: The Gold Standard for Collaborative Forecasting pp. 24-25

Jeff Baker

Commentary: Using FVA the Right Way pp. 26-27

Stefan de Kok

Commentary: Apologia pro Forecast Value Added pp. 28-29

Igor Gusakov

Commentary: FVA Remains Relevant and Valuable pp. 30-30

Marina Sologubova

Commentary: How to Properly Leverage FVA pp. 31-32

Nicolas Vandeput

LLMs and Foundational Models: Not (Yet) as Good as Hoped pp. 33-38

Christoph Bergmeir

Fordyce discusses multiple linear regression in Part 2 of his tutorial series "Linear Regression with a Time Series View." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 pp. 39-45

Ken Fordyce

The Accuracy of Prediction Markets pp. 48-53

Thomas Wolfram

Book Review: Judgment in Predictive Analytics, edited by Matthias Seifert pp. 54-57

Robert Fildes

Book Review: The Age of Prediction: Algorithms, AI, and the Shifting Shadows of Risk by Igor Tulchinsky and Christopher E. Mason pp. 58-60

Ira Sohn

Spotlight: Interview with Eric Stellwagen pp. 61-62

Foresight Staff

Interactions in Forecasting pp. 63-64

Stephan Kolassa

2024, issue 72

J. Scott Armstrong (1937 - 2023): Iconoclast and Champion of Science for Practical Purposes pp. 5-7

Kesten Green

Lessons from a Mentor and Friend pp. 8-8

Andreas Graefe

Scott Armstrong's Scientific Legacy pp. 9-9

Arch Woodside

The Forecaster's Evaluation Dilemma pp. 10-14

Malte Tichy

Combining Probability Predictions pp. 15-20

Ville A. Satop??

Estimating Predictive Probability of Success pp. 21-28

Shaun Comfort

Accuracy vs. Runtime with Multiple Seasonalities pp. 29-32

Stephan Kolassa

Linear Regression with a Time Series View, Part 1: Simple Linear Regression pp. 35-39

Ken Fordyce

How Well Can Social Scientists Forecast Societal Change? pp. 40-46

Igor Grossmann, Christoph Bergmeir and Peter Slattery

A Case for a More Decision-centric IBP pp. 47-51

Niels van Hove

How Decision Intelligence Integrates Forecasting, AI, and Data into Complex Decisions pp. 52-57

Lorien Pratt, David Roberts, Nadine Malcolm, Brian Fisher, Katie Barnhill, Daniela Jones and Michael Kudenov

Book Review: Sales & Operations Planning -An Executive Update by Robert A. Stahl pp. 58-59

Patrick Bower

Book Review: Power and Prediction: The Disruptive Economics of Artificial Intelligence, by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb pp. 60-63

Ira Sohn

Book Review: Demand Forecasting for Executives and Professionals, by Stephan Kolassa, Bahman Rostami-Tabar, and Enno Siemsen pp. 64-65

Simon Spavound

Spotlight: Interview with Sevvandi Kandanaarachchi pp. 66-67

Foresight Staff

Spotlight: Interview with Ruben Crevits pp. 68

Foresight Staff

In Pursuit of Consumption-Based Forecasting pp. 69-71

Charles Chase and Kenneth B. Kahn