The Errors in the Profit Tax-Related Forecasts

Karev Mikhail A. ()
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Karev Mikhail A.: Budget and Treasury Academy of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation; Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation

Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, 2010, issue 3, 57-68

Abstract: It is difficult to make the profit tax-related forecasts more accurate, and the process is time-consuming. The reason for this is the large number of factors that affect the forecast-making process. The macroeconomic indicators of the social and economic development and the methodology used by the forecast-makers are among those factors. There is one more aspect to this. The way the conservative approach affects the budget revenue-related forecasts should be examined independently. It is necessary to identify the point where a forecast error starts the data distortion process because the conservative approach was used when making the estimates. The article author examines to what extent the factors that contribute to errors affect the accuracy of the forecasts made. The author summarizes the conclusions made and describes the key methods to be used to improve the profit tax-related forecast-making process.

Keywords: profit tax; forecasts; state budget; public revenue; taxation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D81 H21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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