Effect of Oil Price and Exchange Rate on the Fiscal Revenues

Alexey Balaev (), Evsey T. Gurvich (), Ilya Prilepskiy and Alexandra Suslina ()
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Evsey T. Gurvich: Economic Expert Group, Moscow 107031, Russia; Financial Research Institute, Moscow 127006, Russia

Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, 2014, issue 1, 5-16

Abstract: High sensitivity of fiscal revenues to external conditions resulting from the Russian economy's dependence on commodity exports creates a major challenge for budget planning and execution. The paper studies the mechanisms determining the impact of oil prices and exchange rate on government revenues. This analysis provides quantitative estimates of adjustments in nominal and real (adjusted to changes in inflation) revenues caused by an increase and decrease of oil prices by 1 dollar per barrel and exchange rate by the 1 ruble per dollar taking into account both direct and indirect effects of these shocks.

Keywords: fiscal policy; budget revenues; oil price; exchange rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G13 H61 H68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fru:finjrn:140101:p:5-16

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