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Monitoring and Analysis of Contingent Budget Liabilities to Financial System

Igor Belyakov ()

Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, 2017, issue 4, 71-84

Abstract: The last global financial crisis has demonstrated that when contingent budget liabilities risks materialize, the resulted budget losses can be huge even in advanced economies. Thus, the importance of the topic raised due to the need to mitigate these risks. On the other hand, monitoring and analysis of contingent budget liabilities are necessary for reliability of budget forecast, which is the basis for the future budget policy. The recent surveys of the OECD (2014) and the IMF (2016) have revealed that monitoring and analysis of the budget risks of contingent liabilities generally are not well-organized in most of countries. Nevertheless, it is possible to formulate several verified recommendations and point out some of the best practices in this field. These include regular and comprehensive reporting on budget risks, application of stress-testing and probability approach, and also calculation of quantitative indicators that measure implicit budget liabilities. As an illustration, two of such indicators, based on the Russian data for 2012–2016, are calculated and considered in the article.

Keywords: budget risks; contingent liabilities; financial system; banking crisis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H63 G12 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal is currently edited by Vladimir S. Nazarov

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