Modeling of the Balance of Payments State in Russia

Nikolay Pilnik and Malika F. Shaikhutdinova ()
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Malika F. Shaikhutdinova: Higher School of Economics National Research University, Moscow 119049, Russia

Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, 2017, issue 5, 84-101

Abstract: The model proposed in this article allows analyzing and forecasting the dynamics of Russian foreign economic activity on the base of the balance of payments. The model includes several econometric equations of all the main components of the payments balance, which represent the actual values with a high level of accuracy. Despite some problems related to the transformation of raw statistical data due to a variety of changes in reporting standards, that were described in the paper, the constructed model can predict monthly dynamics of the main components of the Russian payments balance in the short term from 12 to 18 months. To demonstrate the model’s performance, the authors employed three different scenarios driven by various combinations of exogenous variables, such as the prices of resources, the growth rates of the Russian main trading partners as well as the country’s current economic policy in basic, optimistic and pessimistic states.

Keywords: foreign economic activity; balance of payments; exports; imports; current account; financial account; gold and foreign exchange reserves (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fru:finjrn:170507:p:84-101

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