VAR Approach to Efficiency Evaluation of Fiscal Economy Encouragement Measures

Anton Votinov () and Ivan Stankevich

Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, 2017, issue 6, 64-74

Abstract: The paper presents a vector autoregression-based approach to evaluation fiscal measures. Using both structural and Bayesian VAR models, the authors estimate fiscal multipliers of overall government expenditure and its components: national defense, national economy, education and social policy expenditures. The results are checked for robustness using different lag length and model specifications and different sets of hyperparameters in Bayesian VAR case. Regarding overall expenditures these results are quite stable across specifications and correspond well with results obtained in previous research in this field. National defense and social policy multipliers are shown to be negative (in contrast to previous research on Russian data), when national economy and education expenditures multipliers are positive. The article also presents some policy implications.

Keywords: fiscal multipliers; public spending; VAR models; Bayesian approach (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fru:finjrn:170605:p:64-74

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