Identifying the Relationship between the Dynamics of Tax Revenues and Investment Growth

Rodion V. Balakin () and Yuliya A. Steshenko ()
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Rodion V. Balakin: Financial Research Institute, Moscow, Russian Federation; Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation
Yuliya A. Steshenko: Financial Research Institute, Moscow, Russian Federation

Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, 2026, issue 2, 29-45

Abstract: The purpose of the article is to assess the degree of relationship tax revenues growth on the increase in investment activity and value added in the context of types of taxes, regions of the Russian Federation and types of economic activity (sectors of the economy). As an indicator of investment activity is used the volume of investments in fixed assets according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The correlation of this indicator with the indicators of the tax system and its individual elements is considered both for the entire economy and for various sectors, as well as at the level of specific regions. For comparison, the correlation with the GDP indicator is also additionally presented. In addition to the indicators of tax revenues, the indicators of the tax base are considered, since it is the tax base that is crucial for steps to minimize tax security risks. Additionally, the methodological features of the study are the deflation of indicators and the displacement of arrays when calculating correlations in order to identify the most stable correlation. The hypothesis of the study is that the tax policy as a whole does not limit the growth of investments in the country. The question of whether tax increases or decreases stimulate economic growth and investment activity to a greater extent remains controversial. The examples show that an increase in the taxes for taxpayers is not an impediment to economic development, and an increase in tax revenues is one of the sources of investment growth, since government investments and budget subsidies financed by tax increases are effective tools for improving the efficiency of using limited resources. As a result of the analysis, in most cases, the dynamics of tax revenues and investment volumes do not have a significant statistical relationship, which means that the current tax policy does not limit investment growth in the country, and there is no negative impact of the growth of budget tax revenues on investment growth.

Keywords: tax incentives; economic growth; investment activity; taxes; investments; correlation; regions; types of economic activity; tax security (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E62 H12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fru:finjrn:260202:p:29-45

DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2026-2-29-45

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