MODELING OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY

Hans Schjaer-Jacobsen
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Hans Schjaer-Jacobsen: Danfoss Management Institute

Fuzzy Economic Review, 2004, vol. IX, issue 2, 49-73

Abstract: Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities (including Monte Carlo simulation), interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple and quadruple esti-mates. Focusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons are made between alternative modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed.

Keywords: economic uncertainty; modeling; stochastic; probability; Monte Carlo; interval; fuzzy number; triple and quadruple estimate. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D80 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fzy:fuzeco:v:ix:y:2004:i:2:p:49-73

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