HOW DO DIFFERENT TIME SPANS AFFECT THE PREDICTION ACCURACY OF BUSINESS FAILURE?

X. Càmara-Turull, M.A. Fernández Izquierdo and M. Teresa Sorrosal Forradellas
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X. Càmara-Turull: Department of Business Management. Faculty of Business and Economics. Universitat Rovira i Virgili. Av. Universitat, 1, E-43204 Reus, Spain.
M.A. Fernández Izquierdo: Department of Finance and Accounting. Faculty of Law and Economics. Universitat Jaume I, Av. Sos Baynat, s/n, E-12071 Castelló, Spain.

Fuzzy Economic Review, 2015, vol. XX, issue 1, 71-89

Abstract: The prediction of business failure has been widely studied by many authors. Most of the studies focused on improve the results by applying new methodologies or by using more suitable financial information. This study aims to analyze the impact of the input data timeframe on the prediction accuracy of business failure. Using an artificial neural network, the self-organizing maps (SOM), we compare the results obtained by using 9, 6 and 3 years of input data. We concluded that the 3-year case provides a better global results despite of the 6-year case presents the lowest error type I.

Keywords: business failure; timeframe data; self-organizing maps (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C45 C80 G33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fzy:fuzeco:v:xx:y:2015:i:1:p:71-89

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