Industrial production dynamics in Q2 2026

Andrey Kaukin, Vladimir Kosarev and Anastasia Levchenko
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Andrey Kaukin: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Vladimir Kosarev: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Anastasia Levchenko: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. Trends and Challenges of Socio-Economic Development, 2026, issue 19, 7

Abstract: The trend component of industrial production in the Russian Federation in Q2 2026 shows that it has stabilized in a phase of stagnation. In the extractive sector, there has been a decline in the production of oil, as well as energy coal and anthracite. Trends in the manufacturing sector are characterized by near-zero growth rates. The sharpest decline in the trend component is observed in both the production of coke and petroleum products and in the production of machinery and equipment. In the short term, industrial production is expected to remain stagnant. At the same time, output in the extractive sector is projected to decline further, including the production of coke and petroleum products. Growth is expected in the production of electrical equipment and motor vehicles (from a low base).

Keywords: Russian economy; industrial output; stagnation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L21 L52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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