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2016-2017 FORECAST: RUSSIA’S RECESSION CONTINUES

Sergey Drobyshevsky, V. Petrenko, Marina Turuntseva and Mikhail Khromov
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V. Petrenko: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Russian Economic Developments, 2016, issue 2, 10-16

Abstract: Preliminary data on Russia’s economic results of 2015, as well as the current trends in the global energy market, give grounds for revising down possible scenarios for Russia’s economy in 2016–2017. For instance, a scenario of yearly average oil prices staying at $35 a barrel in 2016 is now the baseline scenario, whereas $50 a barrel is considered optimistic (Russia’s 2016 budget was made on the assumption of $50 a barrel). Simulation of the key macroeconomic indicators in 2016–2017 under the selected scenarios have revealed that Russia’s recession will continue during the projection period, and growth can only be expected if oil prices are steadily above $50–55 a barrel.

Keywords: Russian; Economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O32 O38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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