Forecasting Output Growth of Russian Manufacturing Industries Using Panel Data Models

Об использовании моделей панельных данных для прогнозирования темпов роста отраслей российской обрабатывающей промышленности

Andrey Polbin and Andrei Shumilov

Russian Economic Development, 2022, issue 2, 15-19

Abstract: In this paper, we utilize panel data models for forecasting output growth rates of Russian manufacturing industries. Using monthly data for 2015–2021, we find that one-month-ahead forecasts of panel models are superior to corresponding naive forecasts based on averaging past growth rates. Compared to individual industry models, panel data models yield better forecasts at 1–6 months horizons for a number of industries, but the overall forecasting accuracy improves only slightly. The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Keywords: forecasting; dynamic panel data model; output growth; Russian manufacturing industries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C23 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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