Primary Housing Market: Scenarios for the Development

Рынок первичного жилья: сценарии развития ситуации

Ekaterina A. Ponomareva
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Ekaterina A. Ponomareva: Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Russian Economic Development, 2022, issue 5, 34-38

Abstract: In March-April 2022, the key macroeconomic parameters of the Russian economy changed markedly. TThis affected all industry markets, including the primary housing market. During the coronavirus pandemic, the construction industry was supported by preferential mortgage program. However, current macroeconomic changes suggest a longer and stronger decline in demand for primary housing. In this connection, it is advisable to consider the possibility of an additional reduction of interest rates under the preferential mortgage program down to 9–10% per annum. It is necessary to adjust the parameters of the monitoring of the financial stability of construction companies in order to forecast the probability of their bankruptcy in the next 6–12 months by including in it the assessment of additional financial parameters of developers and parameters of the macroeconomic environment – the ruble exchange rate and the mortgage rate.

Keywords: construction industry; primary housing market; new construction; preferential mortgage (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 E37 R32 R38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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