Low Inflation Allowed the Russian Central Bank to Leave the Key Rate Unchanged, but Inflationary Pressure Will Grow

Низкая инфляция позволила ЦБ РФ не менять ключевую ставку, но инфляционное давление будет расти

Yury N. Perevyshin and Pavel V. Trunin
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Yury N. Perevyshin: Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Pavel V. Trunin: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Russian Economic Development, 2023, issue 6, 4-8

Abstract: Analysts’ consensus-forecast and the financial market’s expectations were in line with the Central Bank of Russia’s decision of April 28, 2023 to leave the key rate unchanged at the level of 7.5% annually. However, the message about the further direction of the monetary policy has become tougher as compared with the previous press-release, reflecting the higher inflationary pressure. Based on results of April 2023, the annual inflation rate (over the past 12 months) slowed down to 2.3% with the level of consumer prices increasing by 0.38% in April which is equal to 3.4% year-on-year with seasonal adjustment. In March-April, a higher inflationary pressure remained in services and started to grow in non-food products. From June, annual inflation will speed up and amount, by our estimates, to about 6% annually.

Keywords: inflation; inflation expectations; monetary policy; key rate; Bank of Russia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E52 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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