Estimation of the Sensitivity of the EAEU Members to External Shocks Using the GVAR Model

Исследование чувствительности стран–членов ЕАЭС к внешним шокам при помощи модели GVAR

Andrey V. Zubarev and Maria A. Kirillova
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Andrey V. Zubarev: Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Maria A. Kirillova: Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Russian Economic Development, 2023, issue 7, 8-20

Abstract: All EAEU countries demonstrate a decrease in output under a negative output shock in China, but neither Russia nor Kazakhstan reduces oil production in response to it. In response to a similar EAEU output shock, all countries except Kazakhstan cut output, and the strongest effect is observed in Armenia, while Russia significantly but extremely weakly increases oil production. When oil production in the Persian Gulf countries (and some others) falls and oil prices rise following it, output growth is observed not only in oil-exporting Kazakhstan and Russia, but also in the rest of the EAEU member countries. When global oil prices fall, all EAEU countries react by reducing output and the strongest such effect is observed in Russia, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia. The article was prepared within the framework of the research work of the state assignment of RANEPA.

Keywords: global vector autoregression; GVAR; GDP; oil prices; oil production; EAEU; impulse response function (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E17 F47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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