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FORECAST 2016-2017: RUSSIA’S ECONOMY TO ENTER A STABILIZATION ZONE

Sergey Drobyshevsky, Marina Turuntseva, Mikhail Khromov and Vladimir Averkiev
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Vladimir Averkiev: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Владимир Евгеньевич Аверкиев ()

Russian Economic Developments, 2016, issue 5, 2-8

Abstract: Developments that unfolded in Q1 2016, particularly the decline of crude oil prices down to a 12-year low, may result in worse-than-expected outcomes at 2016 year-end. Unlike the forecast that we made in January, we have revised down our 2016 baseline scenario for GDP growth rates from -1.4% to -2.0%. In recent two weeks the IMF and the World Bank have downgraded their forecasts for Russia’s economy growth rates, too. At the same time, if oil prices n 2017 stay at $40 a barrel, then output is expected to stabilize or even edge up. In other words, it is highly likely that Russia’s economy will move out of a recession in 2016, and in 2017 Russia’s output will enter a zone of positive growth rates. However, this is a stagnation rather than growth scenario due to uncertainty. Furthermore, the forecast dynamics of other key macroeconomic parameters in 2016 suggest that Russia’s economy will stabilize and that the economic downturn, high inflation and high volatility of the Russian rouble will stop.

Keywords: Forecast; Russian Economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O32 O38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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