DECOMPOSITION OF GDP GROWTH RATES IN 2016-2019: IN EXPECTATION OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES

Sergey Drobyshevsky and Maria Kazakova

Russian Economic Development, 2016, issue 6, 18-22

Abstract: Calculations of decomposition of the RF GDP growth rates in 1999–2015 and the MED’s forecast for 2016–2019 show that in current conditions cyclical components related to the domestic business cycle’s entering the positive phase are the only source of economic growth. However, they alone are insufficient to ensure growth rates of 4% or more. To achieve that, it is important to increase structural economic growth rates, too. In particular, with the aggregate factor productivity to be retained at the present level it is necessary to a ract to the economy further labor resources of about 4.5m people and Rb 40 trillion worth of additional investments in capital assets in 2016–2018.

Keywords: GDP; Russian Economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F10 F14 F15 F40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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