PASS-THROUGH EFFECT: RISE IN PRICES IN Q3 WILL SLOW DOWN

Yuriy Ponomarev

Russian Economic Development, 2016, issue 8, 13-15

Abstract: The analysis of consumer prices dynamics and the forecast based on the model of exchange rate pass-through effect indicates that n the Q3 2016, one should not expect significant inflation growth. The forecast of price dynamics in consumer segments is quite hetero geneous: the prices of non-food products will grow more (4.9% relative to December 2015) than the prices of foodproducts (3.4% relative to December2015), while in the latter group, the biggest growth will be observed in products with a significant share of imports among them ( fish and seafood, sugar, sunflower oil). If expectations concerning the increase in prices are met and the dynamics of inflation projected for Q3 2016 continues until the end of the year, the level of inflation can stay at 6.5–7% per annum.

Keywords: Inflation; Russian Economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 P24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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