The Ratchet Effect in the Dynamics of Deposit Structure: analysis for the CIS countries

Georgy Idrisov and Lev Freinkman

Research Paper Series, 2009, issue 123P

Abstract: This research is aimed at modeling the dynamics of the currency structure of bank deposits taking into account the ratchet effect (hysteresis), as well as comparative scale of presence and comparative dynamics of this effect in the CIS economies, including Russia. This study contains a general model for the dynamics of the deposit currency structure that depends on changes in the interest rates and movements in exchange rates during 1998—2007. Such a basic model is than expanded taking into consideration the ratchet effect (asymmetrical impact of positive and negative shocks) on the deposits' structure. The study could be useful for developing a macroeconomic and monetary policy in transition economies. In particular, the obtained quantitative results could be used for forecasting potential changes in the deposit structure in reaction to the actions of national authorities in Armenia, Kazakhstan and Russia.

Keywords: Ratchet Effect; Deposit Structure; CIS countries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E41 E52 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gai:rpaper:91

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