Approaches to Modeling Selected Macroeconomic Indicators
Ekaterina Astafieva,
Sergey Drobyshevsky,
Georgy Idrisov,
Andrey Kaukin,
Vadim Zyamalov,
Evgeniya Miller,
Pavel Pavlov,
Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev and
Marina Turuntseva
Additional contact information
Pavel Pavlov: RANEPA
Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev: VAVT
Research Paper Series, 2019, issue 179P, 307
Abstract:
The publication contains three papers authored by the Gaidar Institute’s leading researchers based on the studies conducted by the Institute in 2018. In the first paper, a modification of Russia’s GDP growth rate decomposition methodology is suggested, along with estimates of the indicators of structural unemployment and total factor productivity calculated for the Russian economy. It also offers an analysis of the structural, foreign trade, and cyclical components of the estimated GDP growth rate under several macroeconomic scenarios for 2019–2024. The second paper assesses the economic potential of alternative sources of growth, in particular informal institutions – the social and cultural norms that have evolved in the Russian regions, including various types of social capital and entrepreneurial culture. The third paper attempts to identify the effects on the quality of socioeconomic forecasts derived on the basis of a massive volume of data of the recent alterations in the methodology applied by Rosstat in its calculations of industrial production and industrial producer price indices that translated into changes in the structure of data used in forecasting.
Keywords: Russian economy; modelling; macroeconomic indicators (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C10 C15 E32 O43 O47 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:
Downloads: (external link)
https://www.iep.ru/files/RePEc/gai/rpaper/rpaper-2019-179P-994.pdf Revised Version, 2019 (application/pdf)
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gai:rpaper:rpaper-2019-179p-994
Access Statistics for this article
Research Paper Series is currently edited by Nina Glavatskaya
More articles in Research Paper Series from Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Aleksei Astakhov ().