Defection Analysis of Post-Paid Telephone Customers in Nepal Using the Weibull Model

Keshava Raj Gnawali () and Rajan Kadel
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Keshava Raj Gnawali: Nepal College of Management, Kathmandu University, Dhobighat, Lalitpur, Nepal
Rajan Kadel: School of IT and Engineering (SITE), Melbourne Institute of Technology, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia

Businesses, 2025, vol. 5, issue 1, 1-22

Abstract: This study examines the defection patterns of post-paid telephone customers based on migrant status and season-wise acquisition using the Weibull model. Data from 48,666 post-paid customers were extracted from the data warehouse of a telephone company in Nepal. After pre-processing, the migrant status and season of acquisition for 48,583 customers were identified. Survival analysis was then conducted using the Kaplan–Meier (K-M) method to estimate the hazard of defection. Finally, the Weibull model was applied to analyse defection patterns concerning migrant status, default status, and season-wise acquisition in relation to survival periods. The results indicate that migrant customers have a significantly higher probability of defection compared to non-migrant customers. Additionally, the season of acquisition has a notable impact on customer survival duration. The study also highlights a higher risk of involuntary defection among migrant customers. These findings can inform the development of marketing strategies aimed at improving customer retention and acquisition in the telecommunications sector. Moreover, the model and methodology employed in this research can be extended to other marketing contexts.

Keywords: customer defection; customer retention; defection analysis; migrant factor; Weibull model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A1 D0 D4 D6 D7 D8 D9 E0 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 F0 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 G0 G1 G2 H0 J0 K2 L0 L1 L2 M0 M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 N0 N1 N2 O0 O1 P0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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