Econometric Insights into LNG Carrier Port Congestion and Energy Inflation: A Data-Driven Approach

Stavros Karamperidis, Konstantinos D. Melas () and Nektarios A. Michail
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Stavros Karamperidis: Plymouth Business School, University of Plymouth, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK
Konstantinos D. Melas: Department of Economics, University of Western Macedonia, 521 00 Kastoria, Greece
Nektarios A. Michail: Economic Analysis and Research Department, Central Bank of Cyprus, Nicosia 1076, Cyprus

Commodities, 2024, vol. 3, issue 4, 1-10

Abstract: We examine how LNG carrier port congestion in European ports, measured via detailed vessel-level AIS data, affects euro area energy inflation. As energy inflation significantly affects headline inflation, this study provides an additional factor that can contribute to inflationary pressures. Overall, the results show that higher port congestion increases natural gas prices with the latter having an impact on energy inflation. The reaction stands at 0.1% per 1% shock in port congestion. These findings underline the relationship between the shipping industry and the real economy and support the view that shipping developments can potentially be used as leading indicators.

Keywords: liquified natural gas; energy inflation; European Union; maritime economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C0 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 D4 E3 E6 F0 F1 F3 F4 F5 F6 G1 O1 O5 Q1 Q2 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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