EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Are Some Forecasters’ Probability Assessments of Macro Variables Better Than Those of Others?

Michael Clements

Econometrics, 2020, vol. 8, issue 2, 1-16

Abstract: We apply a bootstrap test to determine whether some forecasters are able to make superior probability assessments to others. In contrast to some findings in the literature for point predictions, there is evidence that some individuals really are better than others. The testing procedure controls for the different economic conditions the forecasters may face, given that each individual responds to only a subset of the surveys. One possible explanation for the different findings for point predictions and histograms is explored: that newcomers may make less accurate histogram forecasts than experienced respondents given the greater complexity of the task.

Keywords: survey forecasters; probability distributions; probability scores (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B23 C C00 C01 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C8 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1146/8/2/16/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1146/8/2/16/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:8:y:2020:i:2:p:16-:d:354665

Access Statistics for this article

Econometrics is currently edited by Prof. Dr. Kerry Patterson

More articles in Econometrics from MDPI, Open Access Journal
Bibliographic data for series maintained by XML Conversion Team ().

 
Page updated 2020-07-07
Handle: RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:8:y:2020:i:2:p:16-:d:354665