Are Some Forecasters’ Probability Assessments of Macro Variables Better Than Those of Others?
Econometrics, 2020, vol. 8, issue 2, 1-16
We apply a bootstrap test to determine whether some forecasters are able to make superior probability assessments to others. In contrast to some findings in the literature for point predictions, there is evidence that some individuals really are better than others. The testing procedure controls for the different economic conditions the forecasters may face, given that each individual responds to only a subset of the surveys. One possible explanation for the different findings for point predictions and histograms is explored: that newcomers may make less accurate histogram forecasts than experienced respondents given the greater complexity of the task.
Keywords: survey forecasters; probability distributions; probability scores (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B23 C C00 C01 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C8 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:8:y:2020:i:2:p:16-:d:354665
Access Statistics for this article
Econometrics is currently edited by Mrs. Jasmine Yang
More articles in Econometrics from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().