Inference Using Simulated Neural Moments

Michael Creel

Econometrics, 2021, vol. 9, issue 4, 1-15

Abstract: This paper studies method of simulated moments (MSM) estimators that are implemented using Bayesian methods, specifically Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Motivation and theory for the methods is provided by Chernozhukov and Hong (2003). The paper shows, experimentally, that confidence intervals using these methods may have coverage which is far from the nominal level, a result which has parallels in the literature that studies overidentified GMM estimators. A neural network may be used to reduce the dimension of an initial set of moments to the minimum number that maintains identification, as in Creel (2017). When MSM-MCMC estimation and inference is based on such moments, and using a continuously updating criteria function, confidence intervals have statistically correct coverage in all cases studied. The methods are illustrated by application to several test models, including a small DSGE model, and to a jump-diffusion model for returns of the S&P 500 index.

Keywords: neural networks; Laplace-type estimators; approximate Bayesian computing; simulated moments; jump diffusion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B23 C C00 C01 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C8 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Working Paper: Inference Using Simulated Neural Moments (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:9:y:2021:i:4:p:35-:d:642591

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